If the COVID-19 pandemic worsens with caseloads overwhelmimng health systems, Coronavirus impacts could be like the 1918 influenza that killed 50-100 million people globally, a research paper published in medical journal Lancer stated.
CFR or the Case Fatality Rate of seasonal influenza is approximately 0.1%, whereas the estimated case fatality ratio of Coronavirus was 5.9% in Hubei province, China, and 0.8% in all other regions of China.
The research paper titled active case finding with the case management: the key to tackling Coronavirus was led by Gao Fu, director of Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention.
China, where the Coronavirus infection originated, has now seemingly controlled the epidemic with repeated testing and early restrictions. However, asymptomatic Coronavirus cases in China have caused a fear of second wave of pandemic. According to Johns Hopkins University data, China has till now reported 84,198 positive cases and 4,638 deaths.
The Research paper asserted that China's strategy to contain Coronavirus has largely been successful. It revealed that the average 54 Coronavirus cases were reported in China between April 1 and May 31, most of the cases either imported or second generation cases from importation. In addition, 0.6 fatalities, on an average, have been reported with most recent death April 4.
There is no known ongoing community transmission in China, but the risk of local transmission introduced by internationally imported Coronavirus cases remains a major concern for China. Almost the entire population of China remains susceptible to Coronavirus and, therefore, China is at risk of a epidemic, the research paper stated.
Researchers further argued that non pharmaceutical interventions without case finding, contact tracing and isolation will not be enough. In addendum, researchers also warned that the COVID-19 might continue forever, till an efective vaccine is developed.